The destructive power of a negative forecast

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the paralysis of negative thinking and how advent can help

by Robert Krumrey

Life can be really hard.

Most of us would agree with this statement. There is a realism in that statement that can set expectations in such a way that it protects us from being crushed by life’s disappointments. This is partly what we’ve been learning in the book of Ecclesiastes (see sermon series here). Enjoy life to the fullest, but be aware that there are glitches in the system. Knowing this can guard us from being discouraged, even debilitated, when hard things happen. That said, these disappointing flies in the ointment (Ecc 10:1) can also eventually wear us down to the point that we don’t even want to try anymore.

One of the ways I know I’m being worn down by the “hevel” (Hebrew word translated vanity or meaningless in Ecclesiastes) of this life is when I start to negatively forecast. Solomon speaks of this problem sometimes experienced by those who have been inundated by the hevel of this life which I briefly mentioned in last Sunday’s sermon. After exhorting us to wisely persevere in “casting our bread on the waters” and “giving our portion to others”, he makes this very insightful observation about the paralysis experienced by the negative forecaster:

He who observes the wind will not sow,
and he who regards the clouds will not reap.
— Ecclesiastes 11:4

He describes a farmer who gets up in the morning and looks at their to-do list (which says it’s time to sow seed) and then looks at what they perceive as windy weather and predicts that the sowing will be completely sabotaged. Or a farmer who is needing to harvest the crops that they have planted, and yet refuses to do so because the clouds in the sky could possibly rain out the workday. Both scenarios are a succumbing to negative forecasting and the result is not only doing nothing but having no food to eat!

This has implications for much more than farming. We are all tempted to negatively forecast. We may have never had our sowing session sabotaged by a wind storm, but we know what it’s like to be “heveled” into utter exhaustion. Students who experience set-backs in their academics. Workers who get fired from a job. Couples that can’t seem to spin out of years of arguing about the same issues. Addicts who keep relapsing. The depressed struggling to believe that any action will result in a positive outcome. Those hurt by Christians who have given up on the church.

There is a fine line between a realist who is honest about life’s challenges and a negative forecaster who is allowing negative sentiment to rule them. The way you know you are falling into the latter is when your “realism” is plunging you into paralysis. The wise person has their eyes wide open to the hevel of this life, but at the same time is moving forward in both reaping and sowing. This is not some kind of naive belief that the sun will always come out tomorrow, but instead an honest awareness of both the hevel of this life and the power of the Sovereign Good God who is working out his purposes in and through us. Solomon describes this delicate balance here:

As you do not know the way the spirit comes to the bones in the womb of a woman with child, so you do not know the work of God who makes everything. In the morning sow your seed, and at evening withhold not your hand, for you do not know which will prosper, this or that, or whether both alike will be good.
— Ecclesiastes 11:5,6

There is a lot we don’t know about life. Will wind sabotage seed sowing or will clouds wash out the harvest? We don’t know. But what we do know is that there is a God “who makes everything” and is “at work”. Because of this, we need not negative forecast, but instead sow seed in the morning and the evening, trusting that somehow God will bring forth a harvest. This belief in the Sovereign Good God is not some sort of pie in the sky thinking that tricks us into staying positive, but is instead an eternal and indestructible hope from heaven that empowers forward movement in our short life under the sun.

This perspective of hope-filled realism is also the perspective of Advent. Advent is not a “celebration” of something that has already arrived, but an acknowledgement of the darkness that is all around us while still looking to the dawning light that we experience at the coming of Christ. Even more, we also know that we are waiting for Christ’s second advent which will result in his making all things new. Advent is a participation in a forecast of sorts, but is the total opposite of negative forecasting. It’s a positive forecast that is beyond our comprehension. So in light of this great hope that we have in Christ, keep sowing and reaping. Even if the forecast seems filled with wind and clouds, we know that the Son will soon be here!